On 11 November, the 29th Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (the UNFCCC’s COP-29) begins in Baku, Azerbaijan. This round of negotiations is the last one before countries are expected to submit their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement by early 2025. Since many countries are still off track to meet their current NDCs, it is unclear what will come of these expected next steps. The host country is also pushing countries to follow through on commitments to support the Loss and Damage Fund that is designed to support Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries. Finally, COP-29 is taking place at a particularly unstable moment globally, with war raging on and regime changes underway in the United States and Germany.
We asked top climate scholars at American University to share their thoughts on what to expect from the COP-29 round of negotiations:
“I would hope that the negotiators agree on a plan to expedite reductions in methane emissions. They are a potent greenhouse gas with considerable warming potential, and they last for a much shorter period of time than CO2, so they are path to faster results.”
“COP-29 was on track to be a carbon infused nothing-burger as climate folks and world leaders fly to another petro-state to argue details to agreements that they don’t follow through on, implement, or fund even before the 2024 election in the US. Now that Donald Trump has won the Presidency and has vowed to stop all US-based climate action, the negotiations are even more likely to be a waste of time.”
“The Paris framework was designed with foreknowledge that the US government swings wildly between periods of support for climate action and periods of destructive opposition. The US delegation will be working overtime in Azerbaijan, trying to wrap up Biden-era engagement on a high note before the US is once again jerked into climate negotiations irrelevance.”
“COP -29 will address two fundamental global warming questions: first, will the rich developed countries provide adequate financing to get off fossil fuels and, second, will all nation-states continue to strengthen and implement their nationally determined contributions for climate mitigation. The science tells us our window of time to collectively act is short so I hope this COP yields more action and less posturing.”
“COP 29 is happening in a media landscape where mis-and disinformation is flourishing, all aimed at sowing confusion and delaying climate action. This includes a new crop of accounts researchers have discovered promoting the governments of Azerbaijan and the UAE, and criticizing climate policies in countries like Spain, Germany, and France.”
“As has been the case for the last few years, we will see the return of the Ocean Pavilion. There is a strong and growing focus on the potential for harnessing ocean-climate solutions to meet NDCs and promoting sustainable development of the ocean, with an emphasis on ocean justice & equity, marine technology transfer, capacity sharing, and the Blue Economy.”
“They will be discussing a huge range of topics but I’m pretty sure we’ll be 1) hearing a restatement supporting the move towards ending fossil fuels as a dominant energy source and 2) a boost in funding for the Green Fund to support the transition to green energy for nations that need it.”
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